In the shadowy annals of West African politics, few events rival the audacity of what unfolded in Guinea Bissau on November 26, 2025, a so-called “coup” that reeks of orchestration rather than rebellion. What the world initially perceived as a military takeover against President Umaro Sissoco Embaló has unravelled into an act of deception, where the president himself appears to have pulled the strings to thwart an electoral defeat.
Eyewitness accounts and emerging testimonies paint a picture not of a genuine uprising but of a preplanned strategy to deny the will of the people, suspending the democratic process just as opposition figures stood on the brink of victory. This “biggest political deception the country has seen in years” not only undermines Guinea-Bissau’s fragile stability but sets a dangerous precedent for the region, where losing leaders increasingly turn to the barracks to cling to power.
The timeline of events is damning. Presidential elections had just concluded their first round, with results expected imminently. Both Embaló and opposition frontrunner Fernando Dias da Costa, linked to the historic PAIGC liberation movement, prematurely claimed victory, heightening tensions in a nation already scarred by decades of instability. Then, borders slammed shut, gunfire echoed near key institutions like the presidential palace and election commission, and the military announced the formation of the “High Military Command for the Restoration of Order.”
Brigadier General Denis N’Canha, head of the presidential military office, appeared on state television to declare the suspension of the electoral process, dissolution of institutions, and imposition of a curfew, all under the guise of restoring order amid allegations of politicians colluding with “drug lords” to rig the vote. Yet, cracks in the narrative emerged almost immediately.
Reports indicate Embaló was never truly detained; he moved freely around Bissau, even contacting international media outlets like France24 and Jeune Afrique to cry “overthrow” while opposition leaders were rounded up.
Dias, in a video statement, accused Embaló of staging a “false coup attempt” to derail the election out of fear of losing. Civil society voices echoed this, denouncing it as a “simulation” designed to freeze the process and allow Embaló to rule by proxy through a compliant junta.
Adding to the suspicion, 36 African election observers, including luminaries like former presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Filipe Nyusi, were effectively trapped in the country after meeting both candidates, who had pledged to respect the people’s will. Their presence, meant to safeguard transparency, instead became a prop in this palace arrangement.
This isn’t Guinea-Bissau’s first brush with such machinations; the nation has endured 17 coups or attempts since independence in 1974, including a failed one in 2022. But the 2025 episode feels eerily scripted, with the new junta leader, General Horta N’Ta, described as a close ally of Embaló. Opposition figures from the PAIGC, on the verge of reclaiming influence after their 2023 legislative wins, were prime targets for detention, suggesting a targeted purge rather than a broad rebellion. As one analyst noted, Embaló “loves manufacturing crises, including putschs, when his power is under threat,” potentially to legitimise perpetuating his rule against constitutional limits.
From a Sierra Leonean vantage point, this reeks of historical déjà vu. In 1967, after Prime Minister Albert Margai’s SLPP lost a tightly contested election to Siaka Stevens’ APC, Brigadier David Lansana, loyal to Margai, staged a coup, declaring martial law to block the results and prevent Stevens from assuming office. Lansana arrested both Margai and Stevens, only to be overthrown days later by dissenting officers, plunging Sierra Leone into a cycle of military interventions that scarred the nation for decades.
Similarly, suspicions swirled around Guinea’s 2021 coup against Alpha Condé, in which the ousted president’s third-term bid, secured through constitutional manipulation, fuelled rumours of internal orchestration amid public discontent. Condé’s removal by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya came after years of protests, but whispers of elite complicity highlighted how leaders might invite military “saviours” to evade accountability.
The consequences for West Africa are profound and chilling. This alleged fake coup exacerbates a wave of instability sweeping the region, from Mali’s repeated takeovers to Burkina Faso’s 2022 junta and Niger’s 2023 shift. ECOWAS, once a bulwark against such disruptions, now faces accusations of impotence; its chair, Sierra Leone’s own Julius Maada Bio, “unequivocally condemns the coup d’état” as a “grave violation of Guinea-Bissau’s constitutional order” that “threatened regional stability.”
The African Union echoed this, condemning the act and demanding the release of detainees. As one regional observer warned, “Africa is on edge,” with the coup sparking “fears of regional breakdown” and eroding democratic norms. In a bloc already fractured by the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger after their coups, the Guinea-Bissau saga risks inspiring copycats, where incumbents facing electoral humiliation “invite the army” to stage interventions, perpetuating cycles of violence and underdevelopment.
Worse still, it deepens public disillusionment with democracy. Afrobarometer surveys show support for democratic governance dipping across Africa, with only 44% believing elections can oust unwanted leaders. When leaders like Embaló, accused of ties to drug trafficking and foreign patrons, manipulate systems for personal gain, it fuels celebrations of military rule.
For West Africa, grappling with jihadist insurgencies, economic stagnation (projected growth at just 3.1% by 2025), and refugee crises, such precedents could cascade into broader chaos, undermining ECOWAS’s authority and inviting external meddling. Guinea-Bissau’s farce must serve as a wake-up call. Regional bodies like ECOWAS and the AU must move beyond condemnations to enforce term limits, bolster election oversight, and sanction enablers of these deceptions. The will of the people must prevail, lest West Africa descend into an era in which bullets trump ballots and democracy becomes a mere illusion.